Methods for health workforce projection model: systematic review and recommended good practice reporting guideline.

BACKGROUND: Health workforce projection models are integral components of a robust healthcare system. This research aims to review recent advancements in methodology and approaches for health workforce projection models and proposes a set of good practice reporting guidelines. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review by searching medical and social science databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and EconLit, covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The inclusion criteria encompassed studies projecting the demand for and supply of the health workforce. PROSPERO registration: CRD 42023407858. RESULTS: Our review identified 40 relevant studies, including 39 single countries analysis (in Australia, Canada, Germany, Ghana, Guinea, Ireland, Jamaica, Japan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Lesotho, Malawi, New Zealand, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Singapore, Spain, Thailand, UK, United States), and one multiple country analysis (in 32 OECD countries). Recent studies have increasingly embraced a complex systems approach in health workforce modelling, incorporating demand, supply, and demand-supply gap analyses. The review identified at least eight distinct types of health workforce projection models commonly used in recent literature: population-to-provider ratio models (n = 7), utilization models (n = 10), needs-based models (n = 25), skill-mixed models (n = 5), stock-and-flow models (n = 40), agent-based simulation models (n = 3), system dynamic models (n = 7), and budgetary models (n = 5). Each model has unique assumptions, strengths, and limitations, with practitioners often combining these models. Furthermore, we found seven statistical approaches used in health workforce projection models: arithmetic calculation, optimization, time-series analysis, econometrics regression modelling, microsimulation, cohort-based simulation, and feedback causal loop analysis. Workforce projection often relies on imperfect data with limited granularity at the local level. Existing studies lack standardization in reporting their methods. In response, we propose a good practice reporting guideline for health workforce projection models designed to accommodate various model types, emerging methodologies, and increased utilization of advanced statistical techniques to address uncertainties and data requirements. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscores the significance of dynamic, multi-professional, team-based, refined demand, supply, and budget impact analyses supported by robust health workforce data intelligence. The suggested best-practice reporting guidelines aim to assist researchers who publish health workforce studies in peer-reviewed journals. Nevertheless, it is expected that these reporting standards will prove valuable for analysts when designing their own analysis, encouraging a more comprehensive and transparent approach to health workforce projection modelling.

The role of medical support workers during the COVID-19 pandemic in the NHS in the UK: A qualitative service evaluation at the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

We conducted a service evaluation of the medical support worker (MSW) role at Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust following the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The aim was to explore the roles of MSWs, their contributions to the NHS, factors influencing their career choices, and the goals of the MSW position, to inform quality improvement in relation to their integration into the Trust. The perspectives of MSWs, their supervisors and recruiters were analysed through nine semi-structured interviews and two focus group discussions involving 18 participants. Results were categorised into micro-, meso-, and macro-levels of the health system. At the micro-level, MSWs were recognised as a diverse group of highly qualified international medical graduates (IMGs) who had a crucial role during the pandemic. At the meso-level, participants emphasised the importance of a comprehensive induction by the hospital, to clarify responsibilities and familiarise MSWs with the health system. At the macro-level, the role facilitated MSW integration within the NHS, with the aim of practising as doctors. The importance of comprehensive hospital induction, with role clarity for both MSWs and their teams, supportive supervision and assistance with applying for registration with the General Medical Council, were highlighted as key quality improvement areas.

From humanitarian crisis to employment crisis: The lives and livelihoods of South Sudanese refugee health workers in Uganda.

Despite the many benefits of refugee health workers for health systems, they commonly face challenges integrating into host country workforces. The Global Code of Practice on International Recruitment of Health Personnel, which should monitor and protect migrant health workers, offers little guidance for refugees and research is needed to inform strategy. Based on interviews with 34 refugee health workers and 10 leaders across two settlements supporting populations fleeing the humanitarian crisis in South Sudan since 2013, we describe the governance and social dynamics affecting South Sudanese refugee health worker employment in Uganda. Refugees in Uganda legally have the right to work but face an employment crisis. Refugee health workers report that systemic discrimination, competition from underemployed domestic workers, unclear work permit rules and expensive credentialling processes exclude them from meaningful work in public health facilities and good jobs in the humanitarian response. This pushes them into unchallenging roles in private clinics, poorly remunerated positions on village health teams or out of the health sector altogether. Health system strengthening initiatives in Uganda to integrate humanitarian and government services and to deter the domestic workforce from emigration have overlooked the potential contributions of refugee health workers and the employment crisis they face. More effort is needed to increase fairness in public sector recruitment practices for refugee health workers, support credentialling, training opportunities for professional and non-professional cadres, job placements, and to draw attention to the public benefits of refugee health worker employment alongside higher spending on human resources for health.

The workforce crisis in healthcare: Moving the debate to bridge evidence and policy.

This Special Issue aims to advance the healthcare workforce (HCWF) debate by directing its attention to the implementation of policy recommendations and identifying weaknesses. The selection of articles highlights a wide range of HCWF policies and interventions across various countries. The challenges faced often stem from policy failures and governance gaps at the macro-, meso- and micro-levels of health systems. Recommendations to mitigate the HCWF crisis include interconnected strategies, multi-/transsectoral policies, solidarity-based efforts, collaboration, skill-mix reforms, equity measures, global approaches, and crucially, strong political will. In addition, specific policy solutions are explored, such as community-centred action and employment of community health workers, mental health support initiatives, inclusion of refugees and displaced healthcare workers into the labour market, and preparing the HCWF for the impact of climate change. This Special Issue calls for transformative HCWF policies and multi-level transsectoral governance as essential components needed to effectively address the crisis. This will only be possible, if HCWF policy moves higher up in the public policy arena leading, among other things, to the establishment of HCWF research as a distinct academic field.

Global health workforce strategies to address the COVID-19 pandemic: Learning lessons for the future.

COVID-19 put unprecedented strain on the health and care workforce (HCWF). Yet, it also brought the HCWF to the forefront of the policy agenda and revealed many innovative solutions that can be built upon to overcome persistent workforce challenges. In this perspective, which draws on a Policy Brief prepared for the WHO Fifth Global Forum on Human Resources for Health, we present findings from a scoping review of global emergency workforce strategies implemented during the pandemic and consider what we can learn from them for the long-term sustainability of the HCWF. Our review shows that strategies to strengthen HCWF capacity during COVID-19 fell into three categories: (1) surging supply of health and care workers (HCWs); (2) optimizing the use of the workforce in terms of setting, skills and roles; and (3) providing HCWs with support and protection. While some initiatives were only short-term strategies, others have potential to be continued. COVID-19 demonstrated that changes to scope-of-practice and the introduction of team-based roles are possible and central to an effective, sustainable workforce. Additionally, the use of technology and digital tools increased rapidly during COVID-19 and can be built on to enhance access and efficiency. The pandemic also highlighted the importance of prioritizing the security, safety, and physical and mental health of workers, implementing measures that are gender and equity-focused, and ensuring the centrality of the worker perspective in efforts to improve HCWF retention. Flexibility of regulatory, financial, technical measures and quality assurance was critical in facilitating the implementation of HCWF strategies and needs to be continued. The lessons learned from COVID-19 can help countries strengthen the HCWF, health systems, and the health and well-being of all, now and in the future.

The effects of various retention factors on the choice of where rural origin Umthombo Youth Development Foundation health science graduates work.

INTRODUCTION: South Africa has an inequitable distribution of health workers between the public and private sector, with rural areas being historically underserved. As rural background of health workers has been advocated as the strongest predictor of rural practice, the Umthombo Youth Development Foundation (UYDF) has invested in recruiting and training rural-origin health science students since 1999 as a way of addressing staff shortages at 15 district hospitals in northern KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa. UYDF's intervention is to support students to overcome their academic, social, and economic challenges and expose them annually to rural health practice. This study investigated the effects of various retention factors on the choice of where rural-origin UYDF graduates worked, namely in rural or urban, public or private settings. METHODS: An online survey was developed containing questions relevant to the retention of health workers and included: personal satisfaction; hospital resources and employment factors; professional development and support; and community integration, as well as the reasons for working where they do. Of the 317 eligible health science graduates invited to participate, 139 (44%) responded. Descriptive statistics were compiled. RESULTS: Forty-nine percent of graduates were working at a rural public healthcare facility (PHCF), followed by 34% at an urban PHCF, and 11% in the private sector. All the respondents, wherever they worked, reported positively on their work, management support, colleagues, and ability to practise their skills. Graduates working at rural PHCFs reported that patient care was sometimes compromised due to lack of equipment or medicines, with staff shortages being greater than at urban PHCFs. All the graduates reported that they had insufficient time to interact with peers regarding difficult cases, while those at rural PHCFs lacked access to senior staff or specialists compared to those working at urban PHCFs or urban private practice. Lack of professional development opportunities was reported by graduates at rural PHCFs as a reason they may leave, while those at urban PHCFs cited the intention to specialise. Graduates no longer working at a rural hospital reported that the lack of funded posts at rural PHCFs was the main reason (39%), followed by the desire to specialise (29.6%). Graduates working at rural PHCFs cited the 'ability to serve their community' and being 'close to family and friends' as the main reason for working where they do, whereas those working at urban PHCFs cited 'good work experience'. CONCLUSION: While nearly half of the rural-origin UYDF graduates surveyed continue to work in rural areas, this is considerably less than previously reported, indicating that rural-origin health workers are affected by retention factors. The lack of funded posts at rural PHCFs is a major barrier to the employment and retention of health workers, and to addressing the unequal distribution of health workers between urban and rural PHCFs. This requires commitment from government and other role players to increase the attraction and retention of health workers in rural areas. Focusing on the recruitment of rural students to become health workers, in the absence of adequate retention policies, is insufficient to adequately address shortages of staff at rural PHCFs, as rural-origin graduates will move from rural PHCFs to facilities where they can access these benefits.

How can countries respond to the health and care workforce crisis? Insights from international evidence.

Future global health security requires a health and care workforce (HCWF) that can respond effectively to health crises as well as to changing health needs with ageing populations, a rise in chronic conditions and growing inequality. COVID-19 has drawn attention to an impending HCWF crisis with a large projected shortfall in numbers against need. Addressing this requires countries to move beyond a focus on numbers of doctors, nurses and midwives to consider what kinds of healthcare workers can deliver the services needed; are more likely to stay in country, in rural and remote areas, and in health sector jobs; and what support they need to deliver high-quality services. In this paper, which draws on a Policy Brief prepared for the World Health Organization (WHO) Fifth Global Forum on Human Resources for Health, we review the global evidence on best practices in organising, training, deploying, and managing the HCWF to highlight areas for strategic investments. These include (1). Increasing HCWF diversity to improve the skill-mix and provide culturally competent care; (2). Introducing multidisciplinary teams in primary care; (3). Transforming health professional education with greater interprofessional education; (4). Re-thinking employment and deployment systems to address HCWF shortages; (5). Improving HCWF retention by supporting healthcare workers and addressing migration through destination country policies that limit draining resources from countries with greatest need. These approaches are departures from current norms and hold substantial potential for building a sustainable and responsive HCWF.

Human Resources for Care in Latin America and the Caribbean: Current Needs and Future Demands.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the current gap and the necessary supply of human resources for care (HRC) for older people experiencing severe care dependence in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). DESIGN: Simulation study using previous estimations of severe care dependence for LAC countries. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Older people (aged 65+) experiencing severe care dependence in 26 countries of LAC. METHODS: We calculated the current gap and the necessary supply of HRC in 2020, 2035, and 2050 assuming a mix of complementary human resources, in line with regional standards for long-term care (LTC) schemes, and differing levels of care coverage. RESULTS: Considering 100% coverage of LTC services for the population aged 65+ experiencing severe care dependence, the region will need almost 5 million people working full-time in the sector. This figure is expected to increase to more than 14 million by 2050. Nurse assistants and nurses will be the professional profiles in highest demand. In addition, the region requires 2 million rehabilitation professionals in 2020, and this figure will increase to more than 6 million in 2050. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: The rapid aging process in LAC will bring several challenges and opportunities to the region. Countries should start designing strategies to reduce the current gaps of HRC to meet older people's care needs in the coming years, in terms of both quantity and competencies, to help ensure that their human rights are met.

Estudios de brechas de especialidades médicas: alcances y limitaciones de su aplicación

Abordar la planificación de recursos humanos en salud requiere de metodologías rigurosas y con datos de calidad que sean factibles y útiles para la toma de decisiones informadas. Se plantea identificar los principales aportes, las limitaciones y algunos desafíos del proceso de estimación de brechas entre la necesidad y oferta real de los recursos humanos en salud desde una perspectiva de salud pública. La metodología se basa en analizar los estudios en Uruguay a partir de fuentes primarias y una revisión de bibliografía de estudios de casos en el mundo. La realización de los estudios de brechas en las especialidades médicas son técnicamente factibles en sistemas de salud de diversos países. La información se encuentra disponible de manera directa en las bases de datos o a través de la elaboración de variables proxy, dependiendo de si el enfoque está más centrado en la demanda y utilización real de los servicios o en la identificación de los problemas y la necesidad de salud de la población.

Addressing human resources planning in healthcare requires rigorous methodologies and high-quality data that are feasible and useful for informed decision-making. The objective is to identify the primary contributions, limitations, and some challenges of the gap estimation process between the actual need and supply of human resources in health, from a public health perspective. The methodology relies on analyzing studies from Uruguay using primary sources and conducting a literature review of case studies from various countries worldwide. The conduct of gap studies in medical specialties is technically feasible in healthcare systems across various countries on all five continents. The information is readily available either directly in databases or through the creation of proxy variables, depending on whether the focus is more on the actual demand and utilization of services or on the identification of problems and health needs of the population.

Abordar o planejamento de recursos humanos em saúde requer metodologias rigorosas com dados de qualidade que sejam viáveis e úteis para a tomada de decisões informada. Propõe-se identificar as principais contribuições, limitações e alguns desafios do processo de estimativa de lacunas entre a necessidade e a real oferta de recursos humanos em saúde, numa perspectiva de saúde pública. A metodologia baseia-se na análise de estudos do Uruguai a partir de fontes primárias e na revisão bibliográfica de estudos de caso em vários países do mundo. A realização de estudos de lacunas em especialidades médicas é tecnicamente viável nos sistemas de saúde de vários países dos cinco continentes. A informação é disponibilizada diretamente nas bases de dados ou através do desenvolvimento de variáveis proxy, dependendo se a abordagem está orientada na real procura e utilização dos serviços ou na identificação de problemas e necessidades de saúde da população.

The negative impact of global health worker migration, and how it can be addressed.

International migration of healthcare workers is well established and has become a means of maintaining service quality in many high income countries. In recent years, there has been a dramatic increase in recruitment of health personnel who have been trained abroad, including from the poorest countries in the world. In this article, using General Medical Council (GMC) data, we chart the growth in numbers of international staff working in the United Kingdom, where since 2018, over half of all new GMC registrations have been of doctors trained abroad. There is evidence that this migration of health staff results in poorer health service provision in low and middle income countries, as well as substantial economic impacts in these countries that have invested in training their health workforce. Recruiting governments have argued that remittances compensate for the loss of personnel, and that training opportunities can enable skills transfer to countries with weaker health systems. However, we found that the costs to the source countries dwarfed remittances, and that only a tiny fraction of people who move to take up posts in wealthier countries ever return to their countries of origin to work. We conclude that in addition to the investment in health systems (and workforce development) in low and middle income countries as part of Official Development Assistance for Health, there is an urgent need to increase training of nurses and doctors so that damaging migration is no longer relied upon to fill gaps in healthcare personnel.

Advancing Universal Health Coverage in the WHO South-East Asia Region with a focus on Human Resources for Health.

The identification in 2014 of Universal Health Coverage, including focus on human resources for health, as a flagship priority for the WHO South-East Asia Region marked critical departure from the prior period of the Millennium Development Goals. The last decade witnessed strong political commitment and action to advance UHC across the Region. At regional level, UHC service coverage index improved from 47 in 2010 to 62 in 2021. Improved availability of human resources for health has been an important contributor, with the regional average of doctors, nurses and midwives increasing by approximately a third between 2014 and 2020. Progress on financial protection has been mixed: proportion of population impoverished declined significantly but catastrophic expenditure did not reduce. Despite important gains, progress is insufficient to achieve UHC targets by 2030. Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent economic challenges have created further urgency to accelerate progress towards UHC, with attention to strengthening primary health care.

Characterising support and care assistants in formal hospital settings: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: A 15 million health workforce shortage is still experienced globally leading to a sub-optimal healthcare worker-to-population ratio in most countries. The use of low-skilled care assistants has been suggested as a cost-saving human resource for health strategy that can significantly reduce the risks of rationed, delayed, or missed care. However, the characterisation, role assignment, regulation, and clinical governance mechanisms for unlicensed assistive workforce remain unclear or inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to map and collate evidence of how care assistants are labelled, utilised, regulated, and managed in formal hospital settings as well as their impact on patient care. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of literature from PUBMED, CINAHL, PsychINFO, EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Searches and eligibility screening were conducted using the Participants-Context-Concepts framework. Thematic content analysis guided the synthesis of the findings. RESULTS: 73 records from a total of 15 countries were included in the final full-text review and synthesis. A majority (78%) of these sources were from high-income countries. Many titles are used to describe care assistants, and these vary within and across countries. On ascribed roles, care assistants perform direct patient care, housekeeping, clerical and documentation, portering, patient flow management, ordering of laboratory tests, emergency response and first aid duties. Additional extended roles that require higher competency levels exist in the United States, Australia, and Canada. There is a mixture of both positive and negative sentiments on their impact on patient care or nurses' perception and experiences. Clinical and organisational governance mechanisms vary substantially across the 15 countries. Licensure, regulatory mechanisms, and task-shifting policies are largely absent or not reported in these countries. CONCLUSIONS: The nomenclature used to describe care assistants and the tasks they perform vary substantially within countries and across healthcare systems. There is, therefore, a need to review and update the international and national classification of occupations for clarity and more meaningful nomenclature for care assistants. In addition, the association between care assistants and care outcomes or nurses' experience remains unclear. Furthermore, there is a dearth of empirical evidence on this topic from low- and middle-income countries.

One size does not fit all: an application of stochastic modeling to estimating primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia at the sub-national level.

BACKGROUND: Primary healthcare systems require adequate staffing to meet the needs of their local population. Guidelines typically use population ratio targets for healthcare workers, such as Ethiopia's goal of two health extension workers for every five thousand people. However, fixed ratios do not reflect local demographics, fertility rates, disease burden (e.g., malaria endemicity), or trends in these values. Recognizing this, we set out to estimate the clinical workload to meet the primary healthcare needs in Ethiopia by region. METHODS: We utilize the open-source R package PACE-HRH for our analysis, which is a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation model that estimates workload for a specified service package and population. Assumptions and data inputs for region-specific fertility, mortality, disease burden were drawn from literature, DHS, and WorldPop. We project workload until 2035 for seven regions and two charted cities of Ethiopia. RESULTS: All regions and charted cities are expected to experience increased workload between 2021 and 2035 for a starting catchment of five thousand people. The expected (mean) annual clinical workload varied from 2,930 h (Addis) to 3,752 h (Gambela) and increased by 19-28% over fifteen years. This results from a decline in per capita workload (due to declines in fertility and infectious diseases), overpowered by total population growth. Pregnancy, non-communicable diseases, sick child care, and nutrition remain the largest service categories, but their priority shifts substantially in some regions by 2035. Sensitivity analysis shows that fertility assumptions have major implications for workload. We incorporate seasonality and estimate monthly variation of up to 8.9% (Somali), though most services with high variability are declining. CONCLUSIONS: Regional variation in demographics, fertility, seasonality, and disease trends all affect the workload estimates. This results in differences in expected clinical workload, the level of uncertainty in those estimates, and relative priorities between service categories. By showing these differences, we demonstrate the inadequacy of a fixed population ratio for staffing allocation. Policy-makers and regulators need to consider these factors in designing their healthcare systems, or they risk sub-optimally allocating workforce and creating inequitable access to care.

Human Resources for Health in Haryana, India: What can be Done Better?

Introduction: Health systems in developing countries suffers from both input and productivity issues. We examined the status of three domains of human resources for health, i.e., availability and distribution, capacity and productivity, and motivation and job-satisfaction, of the health-care workforce employed in the public health system of Haryana, a North Indian state. Methodology: The primary data were collected from 377 public health facilities and 1749 healthcare providers across 21 districts. The secondary data were obtained from government reports in the public domain. Bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques were used for evaluating district performances, making inter-district comparisons and identifying determinants of motivation and job-satisfaction of the clinical cadres. Results: We found 3.6 core health-care workers (doctors, staff nurses, and auxiliary nurses-midwives) employed in the public health-care system per 10,000 population, ranging from 1.35 in Faridabad district to 6.57 in Panchkula district. Around 78% of the sanctioned positions were occupied. A number of inpatient hospitalizations per doctor/nurses per month were 17 at the community health center level and 29 at the district hospital level; however, significant differences were observed among districts. Motivation levels of community health workers (85%) were higher than clinical workforce (78%), while health system administrators had lowest motivation and job satisfaction levels. Posting at primary healthcare facility, contractual employment, and co-habitation with family at the place of posting were found to be the significant motivating factors. Conclusions: A revamp of governance strategies is required to improve health-care worker availability and equitable distribution in the public health system to address the observed geographic variations. Efforts are also needed to improve the motivation levels of health system administrators, especially in poorly performing districts and reduce the wide gap with better-off districts.

Why move abroad? Factors influencing migration intentions of final year students of health-related disciplines in Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Limited human resource for health may impede the attainment of health-related sustainable development goals in low-income countries. This study aims to identify migration factors among final-year students of health-related disciplines at a Nigerian university, reflecting trends in Nigeria and sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted using a semi-structured, self-administered questionnaire to collect data from 402 final-year students of Medicine/Dentistry, Nursing, Pharmacy and Occupational therapy Physiotherapy at Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile Ife. Univariate, bivariate and multivariate data analysis were conducted and a p-value < 0.05 was taken as statistically significant. RESULTS: The mean age of the respondents was 24.3 ± 2.3 years. Most (326; 81.1%) respondents had intentions to migrate and majority (216; 53.7%) of respondents had an unfavourable attitude towards practising in Nigeria. Students of Nursing constitute the highest proportion (68; 91.9%) of those willing to migrate (p = 0.009). The common preferred destinations for those who intend to migrate were the United Kingdom (84; 25.8%), Canada (81; 24.8%), and the United States of America (68; 20.9%). Respondents who had favourable attitude towards practicing abroad (AO.R: 2.9; 95% C.I 1.6-5.2; p = 0.001) were three times more likely to have migration intentions compared with those who had an unfavourable attitude towards practicing abroad, while the odds for those who had favourable attitude towards practicing in Nigeria (AO.R: 0.4; 95% C.I 0.2-0.7; p = 0.002) was two times less than those who had an unfavourable attitude towards practice in Nigeria. Respondents who desire specialist training (AO.R: 3.0; 95% C.I 1.7-5.4; p < 0.001) were three times more likely to have intention to migrate abroad when compared to those who were undecided or had no desire to pursue specialist training. CONCLUSION: Most respondents had the intention to migrate abroad after graduation and this could be attributed to the desire for specialist training and their attitude towards practising in Nigeria. Interventions aimed at improving specialist training in Nigeria and incentivizing health care practice may reduce migration trends among Nigeria's health professionals in training.

Managing uncertainty in forecasting health workforce demand using the Robust Workforce Planning Framework: the example of midwives in Belgium.

BACKGROUND: In Belgium, the Planning Commission for Medical Supply is responsible for monitoring human resources for health (HRH) and ultimately proposing workforce quotas. It is supported by the Planning Unit for the Supply of the Health Professions. This Unit quantifies and forecasts the workforce in the healthcare professions on the basis of a stock and flow model, based on trends observed in the past. In 2019, the Planning Unit asked the KCE (Belgian Health Care Knowledge Centre) to develop additional forecasting scenarios for the midwifery workforce, to complement the standard historical trend approach. The aim of this paper is to present the development of such forecasting scenarios. METHODS: The Robust Workforce Planning Framework, developed by the Centre for Workforce Intelligence in the UK was used to develop alternative midwifery workforce scenarios. The framework consists of four steps (Horizon scanning, Scenario generation, Workforce modelling, and Policy analysis), the first two of which were undertaken by KCE, using two online surveys and five workshops with stakeholders. RESULTS: Three alternative scenarios are proposed. The first scenario (close to the current situation) envisages pregnancy and maternity care centred on gynaecologists working either in a hospital or in private practice. The second scenario describes an organisation of midwife-led care in hospitals. In the third scenario, care is primarily organised by primary care practitioners (midwives and general practitioners) in outpatient settings. CONCLUSIONS: The Robust Workforce Planning Framework provides an opportunity to adjust the modelling of the health workforce and inform decision-makers about the impact of their future decisions on the health workforce.

Examining the absorption of post-internship medical officers into the public sector at county-level in devolved Kenya: a qualitative case study.

BACKGROUND: After Kenya's decentralization and constitutional changes in 2013, 47 devolved county governments are responsible for workforce planning and recruitment including for doctors/medical officers (MO). Data from the Ministry of Health suggested that less than half of these MOs are being absorbed by the public sector between 2015 and 2018. We aimed to examine how post-internship MOs are absorbed into the public sector at the county-level, as part of a broader project focusing on Kenya's human resources for health. METHODS: We employed a qualitative case study design informed by a simplified health labour market framework. Data included interviews with 30 MOs who finished their internship after 2018, 10 consultants who have supervised MOs, and 51 county/sub-county-level managers who are involved in MOs' planning and recruitment. A thematic analysis approach was used to examine recruitment processes, outcomes as well as perceived demand and supply. RESULTS: We found that Kenya has a large mismatch between supply and demand for MOs. An increasing number of medical schools are offering training in medicine while the demand for MOs in the county-level public sector has not been increasing at the same pace due to fiscal resource constraints and preference for other workforce cadres. The local Department of Health put in requests and participate in interviews but do not lead the recruitment process and respondents suggested that it can be subject to political interference and corruption. The imbalance of supply and demand is leading to unemployment, underemployment and migration of post-internship MOs with further impacts on MOs' wages and contract conditions, especially in the private sector. CONCLUSION: The mismatched supply and demand of MO accompanied by problematic recruitment processes led to many MOs not being absorbed by the public sector and subsequent unemployment and underemployment. Although Kenya has ambitious workforce norms, it may need to take a more pragmatic approach and initiate constructive policy dialogue with stakeholders spanning the education, public and private health sectors to better align MO training, recruitment and management.

Assessing the impact of anaesthetic and surgical task-shifting globally: a systematic literature review.

The global shortage of skilled anaesthesiologists, surgeons and obstetricians is a leading cause of high unmet surgical need. Although anaesthetic and surgical task-shifting are widely practised to mitigate this barrier, little is known about their safety and efficacy. This systematic review seeks to highlight the existing evidence on the clinical outcomes of patients operated on by non-physicians or non-specialist physicians globally. Relevant articles were identified by searching four databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and Global Health) in all languages between January 2008 and February 2022. Retrieved documents were screened against pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria, and their qualities were appraised critically. Data were extracted by two independent reviewers and findings were synthesized narratively. In total, 40 studies have been included. Thirty-five focus on task-shifting for surgical and obstetric procedures, whereas four studies address anaesthetic task-shifting; one study covers both interventions. The majority are located in sub-Saharan Africa and the USA. Seventy-five per cent present perioperative mortality outcomes and 85% analyse morbidity measures. Evidence from low- and middle-income countries, which primarily concentrates on caesarean sections, hernia repairs and surgical male circumcisions, points to the overall safety of non-surgeons. On the other hand, the literature on surgical task-shifting in high-income countries (HICs) is limited to nine studies analysing tube thoracostomies, neurosurgical procedures, caesarean sections, male circumcisions and basal cell carcinoma excisions. Finally, only five studies pertaining to anaesthetic task-shifting across all country settings answer the research question with conflicting results, making it difficult to draw conclusions on the quality of non-physician anaesthetic care. Overall, it appears that non-specialists can safely perform high-volume, low-complexity operations. Further research is needed to understand the implications of surgical task-shifting in HICs and to better assess the performance of non-specialist anaesthesia providers. Future studies must adopt randomized study designs and include long-term outcome measures to generate high-quality evidence.

What are the job attribute preferences of physicians and nurses in Türkiye? Evidence from a discrete choice experiment.

BACKGROUND: In Türkiye, as in other countries, the maldistribution of the health workforce is a serious concern. Although policymakers have developed various incentive packages, this problem has not been thoroughly addressed yet. Discrete choice experiment (DCE) is a valuable method to provide evidence-based information for these incentive packages to attract healthcare staff for rural jobs. The main aim of this study is to investigate the stated preferences of physicians and nurses when choosing a job region. METHODS: A labelled DCE was conducted to assess job preferences of physicians and nurses from two hospitals one of which is urban, and the other is in a rural region in Türkiye Job attributes included wage, creche, infrastructure, workload, education opportunity, housing, and career opportunity. Mixed logit model was used to analyse the data. RESULTS: The strongest attribute associated with job preferences was region (coefficient - 3.06, [SE 0.18]) for physicians (n = 126) and wages (coefficient 1.02, [SE 0.08]) for nurses (n = 218). According to the Willingness to Pay (WTP) calculations, while the physicians claimed 8627 TRY (1,813 $), the nurses claimed 1407 TRY (296 $) in addition to their monthly salaries to accept a rural job. CONCLUSION: Both financial and non-financial factors did affect the preferences of physicians and nurses. These DCE results provide information for policymakers about what characteristics might increase the motivation of physicians and nurses to work in rural areas in Türkiye.

Motivation and retention of primary healthcare workers in rural health facilities: An exploratory qualitative study of Chipata and Chadiza Districts, Zambia.

Rural areas have the greatest health needs and yet they face the largest shortage of human resources for health which negatively impacts health systems capacity to deliver quality care as they struggle to motivate and retain healthcare workers in such settings. This study explored factors that shape motivation and retention of primary healthcare workers in rural health facilities in Chipata and Chadiza Districts of Zambia using a phenomenological research design. The data consisted 28 in-depth interviews with rural primary healthcare workers and were analysed using thematic analysis. Three main themes of factors shaping motivation and retention of rural primary healthcare workers were identified. Firstly, professional development with emergent themes of career advancement and opportunities for attending capacity-building workshops. Secondly, the work environment with emergent themes of challenging and stimulating tasks, availability of opportunities for promotion and co-workers' recognition and supportive relationships. Thirdly, rural community dynamics with emergent themes of reduced cost of living, community recognition and support, and easy access to farmland for economic and consumption purposes. Interventions that are contextually relavant, which can streamline career progression pathways, enhance rural working environments, offer suitable incentives, and rally community support for rural primary healthcare workers are required.